Thursday Edition

20% of the benefits distributed by the government in 2022 were offset by taxes paid by the same households that received the benefits, according to new research from the Manhattan Institute. (WSJ)

Manhattan Institute director of research Judge Glock in a new op-ed for the Wall Street Journal: “[Taxes on benefits recipients] cancel or net out equivalent benefits, so some could argue that they aren’t a problem. But taking money only to give it back again is costly and inefficient. Families ultimately bear the cost of applying for and maintaining benefits. The government takes hard-earned cash through taxation but often provides benefits in a less useful form, such as housing vouchers or food stamps.”

The issue particularly impacts middle-class households who aren’t poor and don’t receive Social Security, but still qualify for some benefits. 45% of those families’ benefits are returned as taxes. For poorer households, it’s only 3%. In 2019, almost 100 million Americans (30% of the U.S. population) participated in social safety net programs.

Glock, again: “By any reasonable measure, taxing people and then giving them benefits is a waste of time and money. Government can shrink itself significantly without costing any household a dime by cutting both taxes on and benefits to households receiving government support.”

A growing number of “anti-establishment” Republicans are coming out against Donald Trump, who claims to be an outsider candidate hated by the powers that be. (The Hill)

House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good: Trump campaign officials and allies recently took aim at Good because he’s backing Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president. CNN described Good as a “hard-right leader” after he was elected chairman of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus. “Bob Good won’t be electable when we get done with him,” Trump adviser Chris LaCivita said this week.

Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas: Roy, who is a Freedom Caucus member, has one of the most consistently conservative voting records of anyone in the House. He and Good were among the small group of House Republicans who voted against Kevin McCarthy’s speakership bid last year. Trump and the Texas congressman, who supports DeSantis, have traded barbs.

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky.: Massie earned the nickname “Mr. No” for repeatedly voting against bills that would increase government spending. He’s long been a thorn in the side of mainstream leadership — Way back in 2013, Massie opposed John Boehner’s speakership bid. Massie and Trump have clashed over spending bills and Massie’s support for DeSantis.

Trump has wrapped up the support of a number of key GOP figures that might be considered “establishment,” including former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel and all four top Republican leaders in the House. 2024 presidential candidates spent only $22.5 million targeting Trump, compared to $47.6 million for DeSantis and $23.6 million on Nikki Haley.

Trump’s endorsement record compared to his 2016 presidential run suggests he’s now much less of an outsider candidate (FiveThirtyEight assigns a weighted score based on endorsements from senators, governors and representatives).

The Biden administration said yesterday it would be reversing its 2021 decision and putting the Houthis, a Yemen-based rebel group, back on the global terrorism list. (WaPo)

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in 2021, when the Biden administration took the Houthis, also known as Ansarallah, off the list: “We have listened to warnings from the United Nations, humanitarian groups, and bipartisan members of Congress, among others, that the designations could have a devastating impact on Yemenis’ access to basic commodities like food and fuel. … The revocations are intended to ensure that relevant U.S. policies do not impede assistance to those already suffering what has been called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.”

Blinken announcing the redesignation of the group this week: “Since November, the Houthis have launched unprecedented attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as military forces positioned in the area to defend the safety and security of commercial shipping. … This designation seeks to promote accountability for the group’s terrorist activities.”

Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., the highest ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee: “This designation is a step in the right direction, but it comes way too late to have any practical effect. It falls short of the foreign terrorist organization designation that the Trump administration put into effect. … [President Biden] is still bent on half-measures at every step of the way. It was naive to think this group has ever been anything other than radicals pursuing a terrorist agenda.”

The share of Americans ages 80 and older is set to double by 2040, with big implications for the housing market. (Business Insider)

Baby boomers, born between 1946 to 1954, hold half of U.S. wealth, with much of it in real estate. The 76.4 million boomers in America own more than double the real estate value ($19 trillion) of millennials and own $5 trillion more than Gen Xers. In 2022, 79% of boomers owned their homes, compared to 52% of millennials and 26% of adult Gen Zers.

A big housing shift is expected as boomers age: Over 20 million boomer-owned homes could enter the market over the next two decades. An analysis by Syracuse University economics professor Gary Engelhardt projected a yearly excess supply of 250,000 houses until 2032. Some economists have predicted a “silver tsunami” effect where aging boomers will leave millions of homes, leading to potentially lower prices.

CNN and ABC News this week canceled GOP presidential debates scheduled for Thursday and Sunday after most candidates opted out. (Politico)

Donald Trump, who has a commanding lead over his GOP rivals in the polls, has skipped all five debates since the primary began. Nikki Haley said Tuesday that from now on she’d only be participating in debates against Trump or President Biden. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who finished in second place behind Trump in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, accepted the invite to the now-canceled CNN debate on Thursday.

There are signs the debate format could use some shaking up: