Monday Edition

The gold standard Iowa poll shows former President Trump with a commanding lead over his GOP presidential rivals ahead of the Hawkeye State’s first-in-the-nation caucuses later today. (Politico)

Some insights from the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll:

• Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has risen to second place with 20% (a 4% bump since December), while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has dropped to third with 16% (a 3% decline).

• Most likely Republican Iowa caucusgoers are willing to vote for Trump in the general election if he's the GOP nominee, but nearly half of Haley's supporters would choose President Biden over Trump.

• 49% of Trump supporters are extremely enthusiastic about voting for him, compared to just 9% for Haley.

History tells us it helps to win Iowa, but it’s not definitive. Since 1976, the Republican winner of Iowa has gone on to secure his party’s nomination three times. The eventual GOP presidential nominee has won New Hampshire, the next primary state, seven times.

Ink Stained Wretches podcast host Chris Stirewalt on what a win for Trump would look like in Iowa: “A decisive victory for Donald Trump is he gets more than half of the vote. If he gets over 50% of the vote and he's rolling, then that's good for him and status quo. … I think for him, a bad outcome is like 40% or 30%.”

43% of U.S. adults identified as independents last year, tying the record high set in 2014. (Axios)

A new survey from Gallup:

• Only 27% of Americans identified as Democrats, a new low.

• The rise in independents has more negatively impacted Democrats, who were previously the largest political group.

• Independents, who lean slightly GOP, have outnumbered Democrats and Republicans since 1991, with some exceptions between 2004 and 2008.

Rising disillusionment with the two parties shows up in public opinion toward elected officials. In October, a record-high 63% of Americans said a third major political party is needed because Democrats and Republicans are doing a poor job. Congress’ job approval is at just 13%, a six-year-low. President Biden and former President Trump are two of the more unpopular presidents in recent memory.

There’s a surprising wrinkle to this trend. Studies show that as Americans’ views towards both major political parties have gotten more negative, the public has become more partisan. While people may have a more unfavorable opinion of the parties themselves, their loyalty to their chosen party has become stronger, leading to less ticket splitting and a bigger divide in political opinions and voting behavior.

New Argentinian President Javier Milei’s deregulatory measures have apparently had an immediate impact. (Voz Media)

The stock of rental units in Buenos Aires, Argentina’s capital, has doubled since Milei repealed a law which governed contracts between landlords and tenants. Rental prices have decreased by 20% to 30%, according to Argentina’s Real Estate Chamber. The last two months of 2023, before the repeal, rental prices were 40% higher than Argentina’s stratospherically high inflation.

It hasn’t all been rainbows and sunshine. Milei campaigned on slashing regulations and reducing government spending in order to get Argentina’s economy off of life support, but warned it would be painful in the short term. That’s proven true as inflation surged past 211% in December.

$0.02

Thanks to his provocative rhetoric and friendliness with guys like Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump, Milei is often lumped in with the new wave of populist leaders. But his pro-free market policies stand opposed to the protectionism that's usually associated with populism.

Working class GOP support of former President Trump remains strong, according to a new poll. (The Center Square)

A new Center Square/Noble Predictive Insights poll:

• Trump's support is highest among Republican voters earning less than $50,000 and those without a college degree.

• 70% of GOP voters making less than $50,000 support Trump, while 51% of Republican voters who make over $100,000 back him.

• He’s the only GOP primary candidate whose share of support among voters without college degrees is higher than his share of support among college graduates.

Pollster David Byler on why working class voters love Trump: “On policy, he moved the GOP away from supply-side economics and toward tougher immigration policies – the working class wing of the GOP wanted that for a long time. … Persona is also part of the equation. We let Trump supporters tell us, in their own words, why they backed him. And a decent chunk of his loyalists said he was tough, a straight-shooter and honest in a way that other politicians aren’t. Not every voter thinks this persona is genuine – but his supporters do.”

President Biden on Thursday authorized strikes in Yemen on the Houthis, a group of Iran-backed militants who have been disrupting shipping in the Red Sea. (The Guardian)

Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have criticized Biden for ordering the strikes without first getting congressional approval. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., said last week Article 1 of the Constitution “requires that military action be authorized by Congress.”

Biden in 2020 reacting to then-President Trump bombing Iran without congressional approval: “Let's be clear: Donald Trump does not have the authority to take us into war with Iran without Congressional approval. A president should never take this nation to war without the informed consent of the American people.”

Matthew Continetti, director of domestic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, on Biden’s decision: “Biden's strikes against Houthi encampments and missile sites on the Arabian peninsula was the right move. With this proviso: Limited and proportional strikes on materiel do not go far enough.”